What happens to the property market when National wins an election?

Anecdotally, there is a feeling that a National victory is positive for the property market – but does the data from past elections support that view?

Well, Andrew Nicol from Opes Partners (who we recently hosted at one of our Investor Events) has crunched the numbers on this and the results are fascinating.

Firstly...

Andrew's data covers the last 10 elections (5 National wins, 5 Labour wins), excluding 2020 because we’d just come out of Covid, when the property market had an enormous boom due to Covid related factors like historically low interest rates.

You can see that Kiwis buy about 12% more properties after the election than before the election. That's significant.

Secondly...

Using the same sample set (20 years of REINZ property market data) there is a clear trend.

Andrew's takeaway here is that “if the government changes, property sales will likely increase”.

The Opes analysis backs up what we’re seeing in the market ourselves.

Investor activity is low. Buyers are in 'wait-and-see' mode.

A change in government, allied with the peak in the interest rate cycle, could see a pickup in market activity as we move into 2024.

Want more property market insights?

Michelle and Olly recently interviewed Andrew and Ed from Opes Partners (and the Property Academy Podcast).

Click here to listen on Spotify

Click here to watch on Youtube

Oliver Pearson

Manager and Property Investor for 20+ years

Oliver Pearson

Manager and Property Investor for 20+ years

Oliver Pearson began investing in property aged 21 and has since bought, developed and sold real estate in the UK, USA, South East Asia and New Zealand. After a career in banking he is now on the management team at Waikato Real Estate and has contributed to property articles for NZ Herald, Stuff and Property Investor Magazine.

Based in Raglan, Oliver's passions extend beyond property to surfing, hydrofoiling, and providing a taxi service for his children.