Does NZ have enough houses? Which cities/regions will attract most migrants over the next 25 years?

Housing supply and demand is a tricky one to quantify but most commentators agree that pre-pandemic NZ was short around 50-100k houses.

The shutting of borders plus the post-COVID surge in building got the country a bit closer to equilibrium, but with circa 25,000 people on the housing wait list and regularly 50+ people booked in for rental property viewings, it's fair to say that the shortage remains.

Regular readers of BNZ’s Property Pulse will have seen the below chart that encapsulates the above view (yellow line above blue line from 2020 to 2023).

Source: Stats NZ, BNZ

It also suggests that as net migration surges in 2023 and 2024, builders will not keep up with new house demand and another period of housing shortage is coming.

That narrative has been gathering momentum in the property media and migration is now the central argument for higher house prices in the short-medium term, despite stubbornly high borrowing rates.

So, which areas of the country will see the biggest influx of migrants?

Stats NZ have published their forecasts for NZ's growing population.

No surprises to see Auckland at the top of the list (new arrivals tend to settle first in country's larger cities before venturing further afield).

Hamilton takes out second spot in our Top 20 list, thanks in part to the Peacocke and Rototuna subdivisions, the Ruakura Superhub and investment in infrastructure that will benefit the city over the next 25+ years.

Oliver Pearson

Manager and Property Investor for 20+ years

Oliver Pearson

Manager and Property Investor for 20+ years

Oliver Pearson began investing in property aged 21 and has since bought, developed and sold real estate in the UK, USA, South East Asia and New Zealand. After a career in banking he is now on the management team at Waikato Real Estate and has contributed to property articles for NZ Herald, Stuff and Property Investor Magazine.

Based in Raglan, Oliver's passions extend beyond property to surfing, hydrofoiling, and providing a taxi service for his children.