Does NZ have enough houses? Which cities/regions will attract most migrants over the next 25 years?

The shutting of borders plus the post-COVID surge in building got the country a bit closer to equilibrium, but with circa 25,000 people on the housing wait list and regularly 50+ people booked in for rental property viewings, it's fair to say that the shortage remains.

Regular readers of BNZ’s Property Pulse will have seen the below chart that encapsulates the above view (yellow line above blue line from 2020 to 2023).

Source: Stats NZ, BNZ

It also suggests that as net migration surges in 2023 and 2024, builders will not keep up with new house demand and another period of housing shortage is coming.

That narrative has been gathering momentum in the property media and migration is now the central argument for higher house prices in the short-medium term, despite stubbornly high borrowing rates.

So, which areas of the country will see the biggest influx of migrants?

Stats NZ have published their forecasts for NZ's growing population.

No surprises to see Auckland at the top of the list (new arrivals tend to settle first in country's larger cities before venturing further afield).

Hamilton takes out second spot in our Top 20 list, thanks in part to the Peacocke and Rototuna subdivisions, the Ruakura Superhub and investment in infrastructure that will benefit the city over the next 25+ years.