Does Property Really Double Every 10 Years? New Data Puts the Myth to the Test

It’s simple. It’s comforting. And for many investors, it has quietly underpinned long-term strategy — often repeated by buyers, sellers, and even property managers across the country.

But new data from realestate.co.nz shows that, nationally, this rule of thumb hasn’t held true over the most recent cycle.

What the Latest Data Shows

Looking at average asking prices between 2015 and 2025:

• New Zealand nationally: up 55.1%

• Auckland: up just 23.5%

• Waikato region: up 95.9% - almost a full doubling

So while the country as a whole fell well short of the “double in a decade” narrative, the Waikato – and Hamilton in particular – quietly delivered one of the strongest growth performances in the country.

To put that into context, Waikato’s average asking price increased from around $405,000 in 2015 to approximately $795,000 in 2025, making it one of the top-performing major regions over the past decade - something experienced Hamilton property managers and Cambridge property managers have seen first-hand through sustained buyer and tenant demand.

Why the “Double Every 10 Years” Rule Falls Short

Property markets don’t move in straight lines.

They move in cycles:

• periods of strong growth

• plateaus

• corrections

• and recovery phases

The last decade included all of the above - from the post-GFC recovery, through the COVID boom, and into the recent interest-rate-driven slowdown. Expecting every region, in every cycle, to neatly double ignores how markets actually behave.

Growth is heavily influenced by location, timing, and underlying economic drivers, not slogans - a reality well understood by professional property managers who work through multiple cycles with landlords and investors.

Why Hamilton and the Waikato Performed So Well

Hamilton’s near-doubling over the last decade wasn’t accidental, and it wasn’t driven by speculation alone. It was underpinned by fundamentals that long-term investors and local property managers tend to watch closely:

1. Population Growth
The Waikato has consistently attracted new residents from Auckland and other regions, driven by affordability and lifestyle - supporting both sales prices and rental demand in Hamilton and Cambridge.

2. Relative Affordability
Compared with Auckland, Hamilton and Cambridge offered far lower entry points, allowing both owner-occupiers and investors to participate in the market at scale.

3. Infrastructure and Employment
Major transport upgrades, the Waikato Expressway, inland port development, and the continued growth of health, education, and logistics sectors have all supported long-term demand.

4. Consistent Rental Demand
Strong tenant demand has provided income stability, something local Hamilton property managers and Cambridge property managers see reflected in high occupancy levels and steady rent growth.

These are the same drivers that tend to produce sustainable long-term growth, rather than short-lived spikes.

The Real Takeaway for Property Investors

The lesson from the last decade isn’t that property “fails” to perform.

It’s that blanket rules are unreliable, and outcomes depend heavily on where you invest and why a region is growing.

National averages can be misleading. So can capital-city headlines.

In the Waikato, and particularly in Hamilton and Cambridge, the numbers show that well-selected property, in a region with the right economic and demographic tailwinds, can come very close to that long-quoted doubling benchmark - even when much of the country does not.

So, Does Property Double Every 10 Years?

Not automatically.
Not everywhere.
Not in every cycle.

But as the Waikato’s performance over the past decade demonstrates, long-term growth does stack up when it is supported by fundamentals, not hype.

For investors, landlords, and their property managers, the focus should remain where it always has been:

• regional demand drivers

• affordability relative to incomes

• infrastructure investment

• depth and stability of the rental market

These are the factors that quietly shape outcomes over time - regardless of whether a catchy saying happens to hold true in any given decade.